UBS Reiterates Buy on ExxonMobil, Sees Strong Q2 Despite Oil Price Headwinds

UBS reiterated its Buy rating and $130 price target on Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) forecasting Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $1.66—comfortably ahead of the Street’s $1.52 consensus—while highlighting continued strong operational performance despite commodity price pressures.

The analysts project adjusted upstream net income of $5.16 billion, down $1.59 billion quarter-over-quarter but still above consensus of $4.71 billion. Expected total production volumes of 4.57 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (mmboepd) are in line with Street estimates.

UBS noted the primary driver of sequential earnings decline will be lower oil and gas prices, with Brent crude falling around $8 per barrel expected to create a $1.3 billion headwind to upstream earnings. Additionally, lower natural gas prices—Henry Hub declining ~$0.20/mmbtu and TTF ~$2.50/mmbtu—are seen contributing another ~$160 million drag. UBS also flagged the absence of approximately $100 million in favorable divestment-related earnings that boosted the prior quarter.

Despite these near-term challenges, the firm remains positive on ExxonMobil’s operational execution and maintains its bullish outlook, expecting the company to continue delivering resilient performance through market cycles.