Truist Begins Coverage on Shift4 Payments with Cautious Outlook

Truist Securities initiated coverage on Shift4 Payments (NYSE:FOUR) with a Hold rating and a $97 price target, reflecting a cautious stance on the company’s acquisition-driven growth strategy.

Analysts expressed reservations about Shift4’s reliance on M&A activity, arguing that this approach may lead to long-term instability due to a constant need for new deals and the risk of client churn tied to underinvestment in its existing software and point-of-sale platforms.

Despite these concerns, Truist acknowledged that earnings revisions have historically been a key driver of Shift4’s stock performance. The firm anticipates that investor sentiment could turn more positive once the pending acquisition of Global Blue closes in the second half of 2025, likely prompting upward revisions to earnings forecasts.

While Global Blue is not yet included in Truist’s financial estimates, it has been factored into the valuation framework. The $97 price target incorporates 18x projected 2026 adjusted NOPAT, reflecting expected 13% growth in 2027, along with an additional $6 per share in value attributed to the Global Blue deal. For now, the firm advises staying on the sidelines.