JPMorgan Reiterates Underweight on Tesla, Cuts Q2 Delivery Forecast on Sluggish Demand

JPMorgan reiterated its Underweight rating and $115 price target on Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), citing signs of continued weak demand and forecasting a sharper year-over-year decline in Q2 deliveries than previously expected.

The firm now estimates Tesla will deliver just 360,000 vehicles in the second quarter, down 19% year-over-year compared to 444,000 deliveries a year ago and representing an 8% shortfall versus consensus of 392,000. JPMorgan’s new forecast is also 6.5% below Tesla’s own compiled consensus of 385,000.

The updated view reflects analysis of May sales trends in key markets with reliable data—such as Europe—alongside third-party estimates for other regions like the U.S., plus insurance registration data for China through late June. JPMorgan’s revised Q2 delivery forecast represents a 9% cut from its prior estimate of 395,000 made in April.

The lowered expectations underscore JPMorgan’s concerns about persistent demand softness for Tesla vehicles, which it believes could weigh further on volumes and financial performance, reinforcing its cautious stance on the stock.