AI Shopping Assistants Set to Revive U.S. E‑Commerce Growth: Bernstein’s Outlook

After a multi‑year slowdown, the U.S. e‑commerce sector is on the cusp of a rebound—powered by AI shopping assistants and visual search tools. Analysts at Bernstein estimate these innovations could add 150–250 basis points to the five‑year GMV CAGR, helping online sales regain pre‑pandemic growth rates.

1. The Post‑Pandemic Slowdown

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• 2022–2024 GMV CAGR: ~8.5%, roughly half of the 17%+ pace pre‑COVID.

• 2025 Forecast: Growth may slip to ~7% before AI‑driven acceleration kicks in.

Inflation pressures and weaker discretionary spending weighed on the sector, capping growth below its historic trajectory.

2. AI’s Growth Catalyst: +150–250 bps

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• Chatbots embedded at checkout and on product pages simplify discovery and boost conversion rates.

• Visual search lets shoppers snap or upload images to find matching products instantly.

• Bernstein Projection: By 2030, online retail will hit 22% of total U.S. retail (up from 16%), implying an 8.5% CAGR.

3. Platform Winners & Laggards

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Bernstein identifies “essential” marketplaces as prime AI beneficiaries:

• Amazon (AMZN): Market leader with expanded Prime and one‑click chat assistance.

• Walmart (WMT): Integrating AI in grocery and essentials, reducing cart friction.

• Shein & Temu: Low‑cost disruptors leveraging visual search for fast‑fashion discovery.

In contrast, discretionary marketplaces like Etsy (ETSY), Wayfair (W), and eBay (EBAY) have underperformed but could see improved engagement via AI recommendations.

4. Harvesting Returns: Profitability & Valuations

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• EBIT Growth: Street forecasts call for rising EBIT across the sector as operators shift from scale‑driven losses to margin harvesting.

• Valuations: Profitability improvements have pushed e‑commerce multiples back toward historical averages.

5. Pocket Resilience & Sector Trends

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• Defensive Categories: Grocery, healthcare, and personal‑care goods show stronger online adoption.

• Cyclicals: Apparel and home furnishings remain sensitivity to consumer sentiment, highlighting the value of AI tools in discovery and personalization.